I predict I will be crazy about these 3 artistes in 2008. We'll see how things go.

Who knows, I could be totally wrong, we'll find out at the end of 2008. =D

And to answer more doubts about my formula for a star (huahuahua), here's a little recap.

A popular Jpop group would need to be purely female or male to be successful. In addition, having as many of these qualities as possible would result in higher popularity.

1. Young (Below 30s)
2. Sings / Writes songs very well
3. Is controversial in some way / Sells sex
4. Gives off homo-tendencies

And the group in question today is...

[SMAP]
Points fulfilled: Apparently none?
Best sales in 2007: 157,663 copies for Dangan Fighter

Why would a group with zero points fulfilled still sell this well?

Let's go back in time when they still could sing, and still were young. Judging by their oldest member Nakai, it means we have to go back till before 2002.

Points fulfilled: 1, 2, 3, 4
Best sales in 2000: 1,563,260 copies for Lion Heart

Back when they were still young, Kimutaku and Tsuyoshi Kusanagi were both at the height of their careers (what with Kimitaku in numerous dramas and Tsuyoshi in that eating-non-stop show). Hence it is safe for us to say that their single sold very much on sex appeal too, even if no actual body-baring was involved.

Back when they were still young, homo-tendencies between members (Goro Inagaki was the object of ALL their affection) was still acceptable. Now that they are "old", it's just plain weird.

Back then, they could still sing.

Seeing as such, they were a four-point group which sold ridiculously well. That 150-odd thousand doesn't seem so impressive now does it.

Few years later, Nakai was 31 and they managed to sell 2-million odd copies of Sekai ni Hitotsu Dake no Hana. They've never seen such success ever since.

However, it is still odd that a group like this can still sell over 100k copies in today's music industry. I attribute much of this to reputation, and fan loyalty.

A SMAP fan that liked them from the start would easily be in their 30s or 40s now. Surely being young and sex appeal and all that doesn't really matter to these fans because they've liked SMAP for such a long time and familiarity just triumphs.

That said, this would have been a 5th factor, except that it contradicts point number 1. Young people haven't had enough time to build themselves a reputation the SMAP way.

But surely, reputation for other young artists will grow, and SMAP's reputation will fall just like it already did. Soon other artists' reputation will outshine SMAP (overused example: Koda Kumi) and SMAP will lose out on the music industry cake.

In any case, as time goes on, SMAP will slowly lose its fan base. Out of every 10 SMAP fans back then, only 1 still likes them now. If the fan base continues decaying like this, in 6 years we'll be looking at 10k sales.

SMAP is a typical product. A product enters the market as a Star, with loads of growth potential. The product matures and becomes a cash cow, which is SMAP during their Lion Heart years. Right now however, they've entered the marketing stage known as decay, or death of a product.

Good luck to them.

Labels: Hirai Ken, Koda Kumi, Nishikido Ryo, SMAP